The Syrian Bear Trap Part 2.

“He has proven instead only his contempt for the United Nations and for all his pledges. By breaking every pledge, by his deceptions and by his cruelties….”

You might be thinking that this is an excerpt from an Obama press conference citing the reasons for a strike against Bashar al Assad’s Syria. Yet, these words were spoken by George W Bush at the United Nations on 13 September 2002, and the above quote ends with…,

“Saddam Hussein has made the case against himself.”

Some things never change.
With the UN weapons inspectors pulling out of Syria with the “possible” evidence of chemical attacks, it seems that the US is hell bent on attacking Syria and “punishing the country for using chemical weapons”. It must be noted that the weapons inspectors would only have evidence concerning the occurrence of chemical attack and not who did it. This leaves the field open for the US to assert its “moral authority” to attack Syria based on its own “reliable” intelligence. The possible US attack on Syria would again throw the region into geopolitical turmoil the likes of which can only be matched by the Iraq invasion disaster.
But the US is not alone. France –fresh and confident from its adventures in Mali and Libya- is ready to assist the US in “punishing” Syria for using chemical weapons. The UK’s parliament has thankfully voted against any intervention.
The American public, in a latest poll, has voted against any intervention in Syria. 53% say that they are against US military intervention in Syria, though it must be acknowledged that the numbers were higher in the previous week (60%).  Even the officers in the US military have doubts regarding the wisdom of attacking Syria when they are already coping with the economic and military battering that the US has received from both Iraq and Afghanistan. The Iranian and Hezbollah threat is always present. Thus, the case against any intervention in Syria is strong.
So why is the American administration hell-bent on engaging in another military adventure which nearly everyone thinks will probably end like another Afghanistan?
The answer can be sought in the preparations that the jihadis in Syria are making for the coming American strike. Many jihadist organisations are shifting bases, evacuating headquarters, moving equipment and even finding safe hiding places in the mountainous terrains. They think that the coming US attack would also be aimed at jihadist organisations that control vast swathes of land in the northern and eastern provinces of Syria. In a statement, the jihadi outfit Fatehul Islam has said that,

“For every US missile that hits a regime target, another will strike a jihadi base.”

The bread and butter of any standard jihadi outfit depends on how well it fights and speaks against US hegemony. This might be a heaven sent opportunity for the jihadis to entangle the US in another war.
It must be asked that who will benefit if the US destroys President Assad’s military strike capability.
The only winner in that case would be Jabahat-al-Nusra and other jihadi outfits who have travelled all across the world to take part in the war. Indeed, it is now becoming increasingly evident that if President Assad falls and when the Syrian civil war is over and done with, Jabahat al Nusra would eventually fall out with Free Syria Army (FSA) (endorsed by the US and NATO and is the official rebel army in Syria) and with seasoned fighters coming from Iraq and other neighbouring battlefields, it would eventually succeed in stopping the FSA from gaining further power and quite possibly open the way for bringing the Syrian war into Iraq against the Shiite government over there, led by Nouri Al Maliki. The Syrian war would spill all over the middle-east and the chemical weapons that Assad allegedly possesses might fall into very wrong hands.
This might be reason as to why the US wants to have a presence in Syria; to stop the jihadists from gaining any further control and chemical attacks were only an excuse. Other than that, we only have the “USA has a moral duty” explanations, and no one in the post-World War II history has ever bought that.
The US might find itself caught in a bear trap that it laid for the Soviets.

This blog of mine was  published on Express Tribune on August 31, 2013. http://blogs.tribune.com.pk/story/18694/the-us-war-on-afghanistan-is-over-syria-is-the-new-project/

The New Iraqi Civil War. Oil and Fruits of Syrian Civil War

As the civil war continues to ravage Syria, another civil war looms over its neighboring country Iraq. Instead of looking towards heavens, the answer to the reason of the impending civil war may be found in the oil fields of Iraq.

After the fall of the Saddam regime in 2003, the Kurds have been gearing towards achieving independence from Baghdad and already run a semi autonomous region known as Kurdistan Regional  Government  which has its own ministries and a parliament with its capital city being Erbil ( also called Hewler in Kurdish language). Oil is one the reasons that keeps the Kurds at loggerheads with Baghdad and this time the situation has reached  a point where war between the two sides might be declared on the very slightest provocation.

The provocation it appears is the planned excursion of Exxon Mobil and other oil companies into the Kurdish region to drill for oil. The Iraqi government has said that if Exxon or any such company comes to the disputed Kurd territories, then they “will face the Iraqi Army”.  On November 20, 2012, the Iraqi government dispatched thousands of troops and reinforcements to the front lines of the disputed Kurd territory when a shootout between Iraqi and the Kurd Peshmarga forces, over an unpaid gasoline bill, took place in the town of Tuz Khurmatu. Tensions have been high ever since.

Ever since Saddam’s fall, the Kurdistan government has been maneuvering to distance itself from the main Iraqi government and projects itself as a safe a haven for the world oil companies and all the signs show that the western oil companies are taking the bait. With the declining security situation in Iraq, car bomb explosions, sectarian strife and the fact that the Syrian Civil War might soon spill into Iraq, it only appears logical for the western companies like Exxon, Chevron, Mobil and even some Turk and UAE based companies to come into the Kurd region for oil exploration.

The situation is not helped by the fact that the Iraqi oil contracts are toughest in the world offering low returns, problems that are further compounded by the security issues and deteriorating infrastructure that has suffered from the ravages of decades of war.

Even though, companies are racing towards the Kurd region because of lucrative contracts offered by the government, the southern Iraqi region stills remains crucial to global oil supply. However, it is the events on the ground that are shaping the future.  Iraq’s government led by Nouri Al Maliki is striving to maintain closer ties with Iran, a move that has earned the displeasure of Washington D.C. In addition, that the Iraqi government has made little or no effort in stopping the arms supply from Iran to the President. Assad led Syrian government, furthermore in a sign of increasing independence from the US; the Iraqi government freed a key Hezbollah leader Ali Moussa DaqDuq, considered by the Americans as a threat to their interests in the region. All these issues, it seems, are compounding the already complex security situation and if Iraqi government continues to seek closer ties with Iran, the US and its NATO allies might be forced to rethink their arms and economic aid to the fragile Iraqi democratic government.

The western powers certainly do not want Iraq to have any ties with Iran and Iran on the other hand wants to woo Baghdad as the Assad led government is nearing its end and might be replaced by a conservative Sunni government, which might not be very friendly with Tehran. The Shiite government of Iraq is already on the hit list of Al-Qaida’s chapter in Iraq (AQI) and the Iraqi government fears the influx of Sunni fighters from Syria into Iraq. This has been confirmed by the fact that AQI (in a hugely ironic twist) has actually benefited from the American backed Syrian civil war and has increased its terror activities in Iraq.

If Al-Qaida actually establishes itself in Syria, then Iraq would face a security crisis that would be reminiscent of Bush era occupation with IEDs, suicide attacks and car bombings becoming a daily feature. All this would ultimately affect oil supply from Iraq and ultimately world oil prices. Hence, the western and Middle Eastern oil companies are so interested in the Kurd oil fields, and Iraq is wary of this as it would mean loss of precious oil revenue in the future and increased security concerns and that is why it does not want the Kurds achieving autonomy over the oil fields in their areas.  The Syrian civil war has given new impetus to terror activities in the Middle East and it appears that the effect would be felt outside region too.

Creating a Knowledge Sharing Environment in Pakistan

George Bernard Shaw once said:

“If you have an apple and I have an apple and we exchange apples then you and I will still each have one apple. But if you have an idea and I have an idea and we exchange these ideas, then each of us will have two ideas”

Knowledge sharing is one of those concepts in action today that are changing the traditional structures of firms and organizations. Gone are the days when accumulating bundles of knowledge was enough to increase a person’s value in an organization. The world economy is now driven by increased communication and collaboration. The rapid rise of social media is an indicator of this global cultural shift. Knowledge Sharing and consequently the effective management of accumulated knowledge is now necessary in global companies.  The concept of a junior and a senior employee is now dependent on how much knowledge a person has and how “effectively” a person is communicating this knowledge. Also, the growth of this knowledge sharing culture has given rise to a new form of capital called Knowledge Capital. It is an intangible asset, which now carries more value than other commonly recognized tangible assets.

Pakistan is an interesting country with regards to knowledge management. Traditionally, we have not been a knowledge sharing culture. The teacher-disciple concept is still prevalent and new employees are generally discouraged from sharing knowledge and opinion. Although this does not imply that these traditional structures are not changing at all, but the need for change has to be highlighted. In a paper written by Peter Mikulecky and Mohammed Saeed Lodhi, the authors emphasized the need for our burgeoning private educational sector especially the universities to take a lead in promoting knowledge management in Pakistan since these universities are developing the managers and leaders of tomorrow therefore to instill knowledge management principles in them is vital to a productive and efficient Pakistani economy. Also the role of information technology in disseminating knowledge is an important one and Pakistan’s software industry is more than capable of meeting this challenge but unless knowledge sharing and its management  is not appreciated by our companies then we will consequently lag behind other developing nations.

Pakistan can take a leaf out of Japan’s economic concept which promotes the idea of strong corporate networks i.e. keiretsu. Companies can work together to achieve common goals. This concept apart from being applied in Japan also has been applied in west as well where AOL has been known to work very closely with SUN Micro. This effective concept can be applied in Pakistan too under the supervision of government; the industries can collaborate with each other and share knowledge through knowledge portals or other mechanisms but that requires the heads of our institutions to take the matter seriously. Nepotism, ineffective economic planning, an environment of distrust and resistance to change the traditional power structures has led to an inefficient Pakistani economy that is finding hard to catch up with the pace of other growing economies. This inefficient economy then leads to a brain drain in which its professionals leave the country for greener pastures.

The problem with Pakistan is that no one is serious in taking steps to improve our economy, an economy that is anything but built on collaboration and knowledge sharing. The problem lies not only with its institutional heads but it is intrinsic to our culture. Let us call spade a spade and accept the fact that there are aspects of our culture that are hampering our growth.  Educational institutions might have increased tenfold in number, the number of PhD’s might have mushroomed but has that resulted in an efficient economy?   In order to keep pace with the global changes we have to shed certain aspects of our culture. The repressive environment and colonial ethics must now be thrown out of the window. In that regards knowledge sharing can only thrive if the hanging swords of unemployment, demotion and ridicule are removed from an employee’s mind. Change has to happen and it should start from the top. 

Imran Khan and Messiah Politics

It’s a tradition of humanity and not of just individual cultures, that people are always expecting a messiah to come and solve all their problems. When evil has spread everywhere and vice is holding sway, people think that the time is ripe for a messiah to come and solve all their problems.

The messiah factor has come into play repeatedly throughout various millennia. From early age, we are exposed to that messiah culture. Remember Lion King? Simba is shown to be Messianic, as he and only he is entitled to rule and bring prosperity to Pride Rock. Remember Spider Man and Super Man? When the town police just take a doughnut break and let our super-heroes save the day (so much for teaching professionalism to the kids).

In that regards let us discuss Messiah Politics. A politics in which a leader is expected to come to power and solve all the country’s problems and to rid it of all evils and rule justly and wisely. In reality, there never was and there never might be a real political messiah. Politics and Messiah-ship are just two opposite words with different meanings. And yet Political Messiahs have been expected in every country to deliver them from corruption and other evils.

Scenes that the world witnessed when Obama campaigned for the throne of Whitehouse were one of ecstasy and high hopes for a bright future. American society which, in the words of Max Blumenthal is‘permeated by apocalyptic beliefs and the yearning for messianic deliverance’, Obama’s marketing campaign was nothing short than announcing the second coming of Jesus himself. Indeed, he was called “The One” and the “Only Hope” who would bring a massive “Change” in the American society. Indeed the public was awestruck by his rallies and the scenes shown on the television, of people cheering madly and looking upon Obama with utmost reverence were astounding. The word spread out. Obama after sometime was not just seen as the messiah for USA but a Messiah for the whole world. Indeed, it was startling to me that how easily American hegemony was accepted. Where Chachu Bush had failed Obama, even before coming to power had achieved. People from all over the world asked him to solve their countries problems, in other words begging for American Intervention!! At that time in 2008, it was totally acceptable to expect Obama to come to power and begin solving world problems. And, when he ascended the throne of Washington, the scenes of jubilation and joy “around the world” were the ones to remember. Even Alqaeda and the Axis of Evil seemed to think that change was coming and talked about giving him a chance. Such was the enormity of his aura. But then 4 years, thousands of civilian deaths, massive economic earthquakes and foreign policy disasters later, this “Messiah” is fighting for his Presidency and discontent is rampant with protests against Wall Street greed and failed policies are spread across 40 different cities. As one blogger put it, messiah Politics is generally short-lived.

Now come to our very own Messiah. Kaptaan Imran Khan. Indeed the words I have mentioned above, like “ The Only Hope” , “The One” that were used in Obama’s campaign, are now resonating in Kaptaan’s campaign as well. At the time when railways and PIA are practically defunct, poverty, corruption and crimes are at an all time high, it is natural for Pakistani people to seek messianic deliverance. And deliverance they are getting in the shape of Imran Khan. As you see people from all the strata of society gather in millions to listen to Imran’s speeches, you know that change is indeed coming to Pakistan. People are really expecting that Imran Khan alone will solve all the problem good days indeed are just around the corner. Given the Kaptaan’s track record, it might be reasonable enough to expect that, but in reality, chances of massive reforms seem slim. How Imran Khan tackles reforms in education and finance when every single layer of these important institutions of the country is crippled by corruption that has spread to the roots. Until and unless the Kaptaan comes up with a detailed road map of the reforms to be introduced, he will remain just like any other failed messiah, hyped up, disappointing and finally scorned. They say that Mussolini was also seen as the Messiah of Italy’s politics endorsed by Pope Pius himself, but look what happened in the end. Defeated, tortured, shot and his corpse strung upside down in a street of Milan.

Instead of looking for the Messiah, we should find the Messiah in ourselves. Anticipate, change but let’s not leave it to certain people to bring about it. True Revolutions are brought by masses not just leaders.