The Syrian Bear Trap

It seemed an unlikely alliance, an unholy matrimony, when Syrian rebel Jihadis and USA joined arms to get rid of embattled Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Jihadis and USA maintained a tacit alliance, rebels didn’t disturb USA and USA returned the favor by not disturbing them despite clear indications that Al Qaida was behind them. All of that was kept under the table and it seemed that we were back to the good old days of Soviet-Afghan war where jihadis had the blessings of CIA. Jihadi rebels became more effective, car bombings increased, suicide attacks multiplied but NATO and USA remained mostly mum.

All of that now, unfortunately (sarcasm intended ) , is set to change as the most fundamentalist and undoubtedly successful Syrian jihadist group, Jabahat-an-Nusra’s leader Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani has  publically declared allegiance to Ayman Zawahiri’s Al-Qaida, thus placing the organization –literally-at Israel’s doorstep. Al Qaida’s “official” presence is now a cause of headache for both Israel and USA, as it is the very last group on planet Earth that Israel needs nearby. USA formally declared Jabahat-an-Nusra as a terrorist organization last year but didn’t take any action.

For jihadis that are now pouring from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Palestine, Lebanon, Australia, Chechnya, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Azerbaijan, France, Iraq and Spain etc.  into Syria, it is now a golden opportunity to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in Syria (as has been their demand) and on cue Al-Qaida’s wing in Iraq, Islamic State in Iraq has announced to merge with Jabahat-an-Nusra to create a caliphate consisting of Iraq and Syria called Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), in the style of the 7^th century Islamic caliphate.

For the Americans and their regional allies, Jabahat-an-Nusra’s formidable fighting force of 5000 men along with undercover operatives and suicide bombers presents a serious challenge to the already fragile security apparatus in the Middle East.

It is now becoming increasingly evident that when the Syrian civil war is over and done with, Jabahat An Nusra would eventually fall out with Free Syria Army (FSA) (endorsed by USA and NATO and the official rebel army in Syria) and with seasoned fighters coming from Iraq and other neighboring battle fields, it would eventually succeed in stopping FSA from gaining further power and quite possibly open the way for bringing the Syrian war into Iraq against the Shiite government over there, led by Nouri Al Maliki. The battlefield of Syria is waiting to be spread all over, the chemical weapons that Assad possesses might fall into very wrong hands.

 

And to support this doom laden conjecture, out came Assad himself giving a dire warning to the western nations that the current support of USA and its allies to Syrian opposition groups will turn Syria into the next Afghanistan where the 1980’s support of jihadis by USA led to the rise of AL Qaeda and Taliban. ‘West will pray a high price’ he exclaimed in a state television interview.

Could, the rise of Alqaeda in Syria trigger western intervention?

Possibly so. 

The US now sensing the danger (again created due to its apparent folly)  has decided to put 200 intelligence, logistics and operations specialists from the Army’s 1st Armored Division in Jordan to help check violence along the Syrian-Jordanian border, help in ‘humanitarian aid supplies’, and plan for potential military strikes inside Syria. Chuck Hagel, the new US Defense Secretary  (highly unpopular with AIPAC) said that military option will be the last resort, but the worsening situation in Syria is showing no signs of betterment and Assad’s forces, despite  the repeated rebel onslaughts have largely withstood their ground with aid from Iran.

Obama is wary and doesn’t want to drag USA into another war which is showing every possible sign of being as costly as the Iraq and Afghanistan misadventures, if USA really decides to physically intervene. 

But the American intervention will only strengthen Jabahat as its branding as a terrorist organization by the US in 2012 only increased its jihadist credentials. Also, it is an established fact that Al-Qaida and its affiliates thrive in violence. Given this scenario, is Al Qaeda using Syria as a bait for US to come into Syria and hence drag the whole region into chaos? 

It’s a theory that another Al Qaeda affiliate, AQAP (Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula) is putting into action, as it stated last year that it wanted to drag USA into another “bleeding war”. Could this be the strategy that AL Qaeda is employing in Syria as well? Would USA take the bait? Could this prove to be the same ‘Bear Trap’ that USA had laid for the Soviets in Afghanistan years ago and which Al Qaeda is laying for US? Only time will tell.

The Joke that is Poll Scrutiny

On 2nd April, I was reading Dawn Newspaper when my eyes fell upon this headline:

“Poll Scrutiny turns into an Islamic Studies Test”

And then of course we all heard about how veteran and brilliant columnist, Ayaz Amir's application was turned down by the returning officer because in the past his articles have been accused of being against the "ideology of Pakistan".

Word is that ECP officials are employing “ruthless scrutiny” measures for properly screening the candidates. Candidates from different parties are being asked questions about Islamic injunctions, and upon failure to properly answer; the returning officers are rejecting  candidates applications thus enjoying their five minutes of media fame.

In order to grasp the sheer foolishness of such a process, let us run through this small mental exercise:

Suppose a candidate from an XYZ political party having degrees in civil engineering, town planning etc from prestigious universities around the globe, and who plans to introduce many changes in his constituency if elected as an MNA, presents his credentials to the ECP returning officer, who checks the documents. The returning officer , let’s assume, asks him to recite ‘Ayat-ul-Qursi’ , and let us suppose that the candidate doesn’t know it, and just on that basis the returning officer dismisses  the candidate’s  application. Degrees, aims and objectives, plans and policies be damned.

So now, those degrees, credentials and professional experiences are irrelevant, because the ECP official has to be satisfied that the candidate has necessary knowledge of Islam rather than governance to become Member of Parliament according to Articles 62 and 63.

After such a ‘Zia-esque’ demonstration of electoral scrutiny, I am guessing that the said ECP officials somehow time traveled from the good old’ Islamist 80s into 2013.

Thankfully, the political parties also have taken issue with these practices and ANP’s Mr. Bashir Jan was quite right in saying that “One can’t reject an honest and upright candidate just because he has not learnt any Quranic verse by heart”.

In the recent years, much has been written over the utter pointlessness of articles 62 and 63 and to summarize various commentaries, the contents of these articles are mostly vague and terms like “good character” ,“abstains from sins” etc can be easily slanted to serve one’s own purpose.  It would be highly irrational to even presume that 90% of parliamentarians have never indulged in major sins and I have not even begun commenting on 63-G (defaming judiciary) as politicians in the past and present have been guilty of indulging in it with relish.

The main point that can be gleaned from such articles in our constitution is that though the political parties are proposing to launch many projects and reform initiatives, one key reform that all parties have overlooked is the constitutional reform. It is irrational to build a tall building if the structure on which you plan to erect the building is corroded and fragile.  No reform, no policies in Pakistan can succeed unless and until structural changes in our constitution are made. Abnormalities like the Blasphemy laws, parallel judicial system (Federal Shariat Court), Articles 62-63, 203, are glaring examples. 

Thus before attempting to screen candidates, the ECP, respected lawmakers and upholders of those laws should revisit Quaid-eAzam’s oft quoted (and oft forgotten) excerpt from his 11th August 1947 speech:

“… You may belong to any religion or caste or creed - that has nothing to do with the business of the State...”

Sadly, we have mixed religion with the business of the state and evolved into the exact anti-thesis of what the Quaid preached on 11th August 1947. Hence, now it has become more important to remember Quranic verses then to have proper educational and professional credentials. This has to end.

PS: On Ayaz Amir's case I shall just say  as  epigrammaticaly as possible:

There never was an Ideology of Pakistan. The  closest thing that we had near to an ideology died on the streets of Dhaka on December 1971, so don't kid us.

Time to Re-Evaluate Relations with Saudi Arabia

"We in Saudi Arabia are not observers in Pakistan, we are participants."

Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the US Adel al-Jubeir

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have enjoyed strong bi-lateral ties for decades and Pakistani citizens mostly regard Saudi Arab rulers with reverence, as Saudi rulers are the self-proclaimed guardians of the Holy Shrines in Mecca and Medina. 

That being said, it is worth noting that the influence of Saudi Arabia in Pakistani affairs has been –for want of a better word- unhealthy. When it comes to making decisions on regional policies, solving energy issues or even parliamentary affairs, somehow Saudi Arabia will be involved in them. Thus, such an unhealthy interest in our national affairs by a foreign country should be a cause of concern for us a nation and more so for our policy planners, but are they even concerned?

Recently when Ex-Dictator cum Ex-President Pervez Musharraf arrived in Pakistan after four years of self imposed exile, it was reported that he did so after Saudis played a key role in sealing a deal with Nawaz Sharif to keep clear off Musharraf and turned the keys here and there in the corridors of power in Islamabad to ensure Pervez Muharraf’s safe arrival.

In wiki leaks cables it was found that though Saudis clearly favor Nawaz Sharif in Pakistani politics, and it has been shown a number of times, but they also have a certain likeness for Musharraf and view the Army “as their winning horse” Pakistan.  

In addition, it is common knowledge that many of our religious parties –dare I say all of them?-are on Saudi payroll, and the Saudis have funneled huge sums of money in creation of religious institutions throughout Pakistan. It strikes me as singularly amusing when I see religious parties in Pakistan indulging in anti-US tirades but conveniently forgetting that their biggest financier is USA’s main enforcer in this region.

Also, the Saudi petro-dollar being dished out to religious parties and seminaries is becoming a headache for Pakistan. In South Punjab, for instance, it has been reported that Saudis are funding almost 100 million dollars each year to Deobandi and Ahl-e Hadith clerics, who are using those funds to establish extremist networks in those areas and from where terrorists can fan out in Pakistan to attack religious minorities and security officials.

 The PMLN led government in Punjab has never been interested in dismantling those networks and putting restrictions on such financing. But they can be forgiven for  their lack of action in this regards, since Mian Nawaz Sharif himself is Saudi Arabia’s favorite politician in Pakistan, who is heavily indebted to them for their ‘generous help’ in election campaigns and providing ‘special development loans’ to him during his exile there.

Besides financing terrorist outfits in Punjab, Saudis are also ‘allegedly ‘involved in Baluchistan crisis (aren’t they already too much involved?). Reason being the Pak Iran Gas pipeline which is critical for addressing the nation’s crisis, but which is being sabotaged by the nexus of USA and Saudi Arabia because they do not want to see the spread of Iranian influence in the region and also because Saudis consider Iranian enemies based on differences in sects. Indeed, it has been revealed that this nexus of Saudi Arabia and USA has been involved in fomenting separatism in Baluchistan, which is resulting in numerous deaths in the province and is a cause of concern for both Pakistan and Iran because if the separatist strife keeps on increasing in Baluchistan, it would put the gas pipe line in jeopardy ( much to the satisfaction of Saudis and Americans).

Thus with all the trouble that Saudis are responsible for creating in Pakistan, it is time for our government and political/politico-religious parties to reevaluate their relations with KSA,  as its constant interference in our affairs is giving us more harm rather than the benefits it purports to provide. For that, our leaders will have to take tough decisions as Saudis still provide us with much needed crude oil and aid assistance. It is a tricky balancing act, but one that has to performed, as too much damage has already been done by our love affair with the ‘brotherly Muslim country’.