As the civil war continues to ravage Syria, another civil
war looms over its neighboring country Iraq. Instead of looking towards
heavens, the answer to the reason of the impending civil war may be found in
the oil fields of Iraq.
After the fall of the Saddam regime in 2003, the Kurds have
been gearing towards achieving independence from Baghdad and already run a semi
autonomous region known as Kurdistan
Regional Government which has its own ministries and a parliament
with its capital city being Erbil ( also called Hewler in Kurdish language).
Oil is one the reasons that keeps the Kurds at loggerheads with Baghdad and
this time the situation has reached a
point where war between the two sides might be declared on the very slightest
provocation.
The provocation it appears is the planned
excursion of Exxon Mobil and other oil companies into the Kurdish region to
drill for oil. The Iraqi government has said that if Exxon or any such company
comes to the disputed Kurd territories, then they “will
face the Iraqi Army”. On November
20, 2012, the Iraqi government dispatched thousands of troops and
reinforcements to the front lines of the disputed Kurd territory when a
shootout between Iraqi and the Kurd Peshmarga forces, over an unpaid gasoline
bill, took place in the town of Tuz Khurmatu. Tensions have been high ever
since.
Ever since Saddam’s fall, the Kurdistan government has been
maneuvering to distance itself from the main Iraqi government and projects
itself as a safe a haven for the world oil companies and all the signs show
that the western oil companies are
taking the bait. With the declining security situation in Iraq, car bomb
explosions, sectarian strife and the fact that the Syrian Civil War might
soon spill into Iraq, it only appears logical for the western companies
like Exxon, Chevron, Mobil and even some Turk and UAE based companies to come
into the Kurd region for oil exploration.
The situation is not helped by the fact that the Iraqi oil contracts
are toughest
in the world offering low returns, problems that are further compounded by
the security issues and deteriorating infrastructure that has suffered from the
ravages of decades of war.
Even though, companies are racing towards the Kurd region
because of lucrative contracts offered by the government, the southern Iraqi
region stills remains crucial to global oil supply. However, it is the events
on the ground that are shaping the future.
Iraq’s government led by Nouri Al Maliki is striving to maintain
closer ties with Iran, a move that has earned the displeasure of Washington
D.C. In addition, that the Iraqi government has made little or no effort in
stopping the arms supply from Iran to the President. Assad led Syrian
government, furthermore in a sign of increasing independence from the US; the
Iraqi government freed a key Hezbollah
leader Ali Moussa DaqDuq, considered by the Americans as a threat to their
interests in the region. All these issues, it seems, are compounding the
already complex security situation and if Iraqi government continues to seek
closer ties with Iran, the US and its NATO allies might be forced to rethink
their arms and economic aid to the fragile Iraqi democratic government.
The western powers certainly do not want Iraq to have any
ties with Iran and Iran on the other hand wants to woo Baghdad as the Assad led
government is nearing its end and might be replaced by a conservative Sunni
government, which might not be very friendly with Tehran. The Shiite government
of Iraq is already on the hit list of Al-Qaida’s chapter in Iraq (AQI) and the
Iraqi government fears the influx
of Sunni fighters from Syria into Iraq. This has been confirmed by the fact
that AQI (in a hugely ironic twist) has
actually benefited from the American backed Syrian civil war and has
increased its terror activities in Iraq.
If Al-Qaida actually establishes itself in Syria, then Iraq
would face a security crisis that would be reminiscent of Bush era occupation
with IEDs, suicide attacks and car bombings becoming a daily feature. All this
would ultimately affect oil supply from Iraq and ultimately world oil prices.
Hence, the western and Middle Eastern oil companies are so interested in the
Kurd oil fields, and Iraq is wary of this as it would mean loss of precious oil
revenue in the future and increased security concerns and that is why it does
not want the Kurds achieving autonomy over the oil fields in their areas. The Syrian civil war has given new impetus to
terror activities in the Middle East and it appears that the effect would be
felt outside region too.
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