The Syrian Bear Trap

It seemed an unlikely alliance, an unholy matrimony, when Syrian rebel Jihadis and USA joined arms to get rid of embattled Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. Jihadis and USA maintained a tacit alliance, rebels didn’t disturb USA and USA returned the favor by not disturbing them despite clear indications that Al Qaida was behind them. All of that was kept under the table and it seemed that we were back to the good old days of Soviet-Afghan war where jihadis had the blessings of CIA. Jihadi rebels became more effective, car bombings increased, suicide attacks multiplied but NATO and USA remained mostly mum.

All of that now, unfortunately (sarcasm intended ) , is set to change as the most fundamentalist and undoubtedly successful Syrian jihadist group, Jabahat-an-Nusra’s leader Abu Mohammed Al Jawlani has  publically declared allegiance to Ayman Zawahiri’s Al-Qaida, thus placing the organization –literally-at Israel’s doorstep. Al Qaida’s “official” presence is now a cause of headache for both Israel and USA, as it is the very last group on planet Earth that Israel needs nearby. USA formally declared Jabahat-an-Nusra as a terrorist organization last year but didn’t take any action.

For jihadis that are now pouring from Libya, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Palestine, Lebanon, Australia, Chechnya, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Kosovo, Azerbaijan, France, Iraq and Spain etc.  into Syria, it is now a golden opportunity to establish a fundamentalist Islamic state in Syria (as has been their demand) and on cue Al-Qaida’s wing in Iraq, Islamic State in Iraq has announced to merge with Jabahat-an-Nusra to create a caliphate consisting of Iraq and Syria called Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), in the style of the 7^th century Islamic caliphate.

For the Americans and their regional allies, Jabahat-an-Nusra’s formidable fighting force of 5000 men along with undercover operatives and suicide bombers presents a serious challenge to the already fragile security apparatus in the Middle East.

It is now becoming increasingly evident that when the Syrian civil war is over and done with, Jabahat An Nusra would eventually fall out with Free Syria Army (FSA) (endorsed by USA and NATO and the official rebel army in Syria) and with seasoned fighters coming from Iraq and other neighboring battle fields, it would eventually succeed in stopping FSA from gaining further power and quite possibly open the way for bringing the Syrian war into Iraq against the Shiite government over there, led by Nouri Al Maliki. The battlefield of Syria is waiting to be spread all over, the chemical weapons that Assad possesses might fall into very wrong hands.

 

And to support this doom laden conjecture, out came Assad himself giving a dire warning to the western nations that the current support of USA and its allies to Syrian opposition groups will turn Syria into the next Afghanistan where the 1980’s support of jihadis by USA led to the rise of AL Qaeda and Taliban. ‘West will pray a high price’ he exclaimed in a state television interview.

Could, the rise of Alqaeda in Syria trigger western intervention?

Possibly so. 

The US now sensing the danger (again created due to its apparent folly)  has decided to put 200 intelligence, logistics and operations specialists from the Army’s 1st Armored Division in Jordan to help check violence along the Syrian-Jordanian border, help in ‘humanitarian aid supplies’, and plan for potential military strikes inside Syria. Chuck Hagel, the new US Defense Secretary  (highly unpopular with AIPAC) said that military option will be the last resort, but the worsening situation in Syria is showing no signs of betterment and Assad’s forces, despite  the repeated rebel onslaughts have largely withstood their ground with aid from Iran.

Obama is wary and doesn’t want to drag USA into another war which is showing every possible sign of being as costly as the Iraq and Afghanistan misadventures, if USA really decides to physically intervene. 

But the American intervention will only strengthen Jabahat as its branding as a terrorist organization by the US in 2012 only increased its jihadist credentials. Also, it is an established fact that Al-Qaida and its affiliates thrive in violence. Given this scenario, is Al Qaeda using Syria as a bait for US to come into Syria and hence drag the whole region into chaos? 

It’s a theory that another Al Qaeda affiliate, AQAP (Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula) is putting into action, as it stated last year that it wanted to drag USA into another “bleeding war”. Could this be the strategy that AL Qaeda is employing in Syria as well? Would USA take the bait? Could this prove to be the same ‘Bear Trap’ that USA had laid for the Soviets in Afghanistan years ago and which Al Qaeda is laying for US? Only time will tell.