The Blame Lies with Us.

I thought that this was it.

The brave Hazara protestors by sitting silently on Alamdar road, without firing a single shot, without burning a single building had brought down one of the most corrupt and inept governments in  six decades  of Pakistan’s existence.

I thought that a new day has begun, the overwhelming support for the Hazara community and the rejection of all forms of sectarian violence was heartwarming.  We Are All Hazara, Justice For Hazara and Quetta Sit-in hash tags flooded twitter, in the end, the government decided that ignoring the issue was no longer an option and caved in.

Peaceful struggle had won.

But then, on the evening of this Tuesday, another tragedy struck. This time in Alam Gudar, KPK,  where  15 tribesmen were reported, shot dead by ‘unknown’ persons, which tribesmen claim were security forces and which the security forces claim were the militants of Mangal Bagh.They rose up in protest, bodies were lain down in front of KPK Governor, Syed Masood Kausar’s house, a delegation sent to present demands, negotiations were reported to be successful, the delegation returned to the protestors, but they did not accept the offer. Their demand was that the government should end operation in the tribal area.

The delegation had failed them.

They protested on,  Senator Hameedullah Jan Afridi, attempted to speak with the tribesmen, but the enraged tribesmen hurled shoes and stones at him, police came in, tear gas shells were fired, protestors were beaten, dispersed and the dead bodies hauled over trucks and moved to cold storage.

This happened in the province of a democratically elected government of Awami National Party.Regardless of who killed the tribes people, whether it were Mangal Bagh henchmen in FC disguise or whether it was the security forces  who shot the civilians, in the end it mattered how a democratic government who’s steeped in the ethos of non-violence promulgated by Bacha Khan, ended up dealing with the protestors.

It was a sensitive issue dealt with all the sensitivity of a blunt knife. If that’s the way the KPK government chooses to end protests of Tribesmen, then their reconciliation approaches in the war-ravaged areas of FATA must be questioned.

I ask the KPK government, did the protestors set fire to any government building?

Did they destroy any public property?

Were they a threat to the security of KPK?

Were their hurled shoes similar in threat to rockets and shells?

The protest was overall peaceful; the 12-member delegation that was sent couldn’t effectively fight the tribesmen case and hence enraged the tribesmen. However, the tribesmen didn’t go on a rampage, they chose to sit in. If they chose a peaceful method of protest in the hope of being given the same justice as the Hazara community and have their grievances addressed, then it was the government’s responsibility to reply in a similar manner.

Another important thing that strikes me in this tragedy is the deafening media silence on the issue. How many channels covered the sit in? But perhaps the important question here is how many Pakistanis actually chose to give an ear and an eye to the sit in?

Let’s ask ourselves truthfully; weren’t we looking for more entertainment provided by a Canadian national hiding behind bulletproof glass?Let us answer honestly; aren’t we desensitized over daily killings in FATA?

The details of the massacre are wooly and the nation needs to ask questions. Who did the killings? Why is it so that those killings come days after Lashkar e Islam Chief Mangal Baghthreatened violence against Khasadars, and for the first time in three years, Tribal Militia was redeployed in Bara to counter that threat. Who were those people that were gunned down? Were they related to the Khasadars? Answers must be given, perpetrators must be brought to book. The KPK government must be made to apologize for using force against the protestors !But no, perhaps the answers to these questions, the solution to our problems lies in the hollow  harangues of a certain Shaikh Ul Islam. I blame you Pakistanis. 

The New Iraqi Civil War. Oil and Fruits of Syrian Civil War

As the civil war continues to ravage Syria, another civil war looms over its neighboring country Iraq. Instead of looking towards heavens, the answer to the reason of the impending civil war may be found in the oil fields of Iraq.

After the fall of the Saddam regime in 2003, the Kurds have been gearing towards achieving independence from Baghdad and already run a semi autonomous region known as Kurdistan Regional  Government  which has its own ministries and a parliament with its capital city being Erbil ( also called Hewler in Kurdish language). Oil is one the reasons that keeps the Kurds at loggerheads with Baghdad and this time the situation has reached  a point where war between the two sides might be declared on the very slightest provocation.

The provocation it appears is the planned excursion of Exxon Mobil and other oil companies into the Kurdish region to drill for oil. The Iraqi government has said that if Exxon or any such company comes to the disputed Kurd territories, then they “will face the Iraqi Army”.  On November 20, 2012, the Iraqi government dispatched thousands of troops and reinforcements to the front lines of the disputed Kurd territory when a shootout between Iraqi and the Kurd Peshmarga forces, over an unpaid gasoline bill, took place in the town of Tuz Khurmatu. Tensions have been high ever since.

Ever since Saddam’s fall, the Kurdistan government has been maneuvering to distance itself from the main Iraqi government and projects itself as a safe a haven for the world oil companies and all the signs show that the western oil companies are taking the bait. With the declining security situation in Iraq, car bomb explosions, sectarian strife and the fact that the Syrian Civil War might soon spill into Iraq, it only appears logical for the western companies like Exxon, Chevron, Mobil and even some Turk and UAE based companies to come into the Kurd region for oil exploration.

The situation is not helped by the fact that the Iraqi oil contracts are toughest in the world offering low returns, problems that are further compounded by the security issues and deteriorating infrastructure that has suffered from the ravages of decades of war.

Even though, companies are racing towards the Kurd region because of lucrative contracts offered by the government, the southern Iraqi region stills remains crucial to global oil supply. However, it is the events on the ground that are shaping the future.  Iraq’s government led by Nouri Al Maliki is striving to maintain closer ties with Iran, a move that has earned the displeasure of Washington D.C. In addition, that the Iraqi government has made little or no effort in stopping the arms supply from Iran to the President. Assad led Syrian government, furthermore in a sign of increasing independence from the US; the Iraqi government freed a key Hezbollah leader Ali Moussa DaqDuq, considered by the Americans as a threat to their interests in the region. All these issues, it seems, are compounding the already complex security situation and if Iraqi government continues to seek closer ties with Iran, the US and its NATO allies might be forced to rethink their arms and economic aid to the fragile Iraqi democratic government.

The western powers certainly do not want Iraq to have any ties with Iran and Iran on the other hand wants to woo Baghdad as the Assad led government is nearing its end and might be replaced by a conservative Sunni government, which might not be very friendly with Tehran. The Shiite government of Iraq is already on the hit list of Al-Qaida’s chapter in Iraq (AQI) and the Iraqi government fears the influx of Sunni fighters from Syria into Iraq. This has been confirmed by the fact that AQI (in a hugely ironic twist) has actually benefited from the American backed Syrian civil war and has increased its terror activities in Iraq.

If Al-Qaida actually establishes itself in Syria, then Iraq would face a security crisis that would be reminiscent of Bush era occupation with IEDs, suicide attacks and car bombings becoming a daily feature. All this would ultimately affect oil supply from Iraq and ultimately world oil prices. Hence, the western and Middle Eastern oil companies are so interested in the Kurd oil fields, and Iraq is wary of this as it would mean loss of precious oil revenue in the future and increased security concerns and that is why it does not want the Kurds achieving autonomy over the oil fields in their areas.  The Syrian civil war has given new impetus to terror activities in the Middle East and it appears that the effect would be felt outside region too.